Is This The Year Pack Draft a Receiver On Day One?

Here it is, my annual exercise in futility. You know and I know the Packers won’t make all of their picks as the draft order stands right now. Gutey will move up and down. My home run dream scenario is he moves up and finds a way to land Henry Ruggs III. But it most likely just that: a dream.

Is it more likely he gets coaxed to move out of the first round if, say, Jordan Love is sitting there at 30 and someone wants to grab him? Or would the Pack snatch him for themselves? I’d like to think that if either of the quick, hard hitting, sideline to sideline linebackers are there, Murray or Queen, that the Pack would give Mike Pettine that elusive missing piece in the middle of the defense. But I just don’t think Gutey would go that route.

My hunch is the Packers will decide between a tackle (the eventual Bulaga successor) or a wide receiver. We all know Green Bay hasn’t selected one in the first round since Javon Walker, and with the depth at that position in this year’s draft, maybe they think they can wait. I’m afraid there will be a run on them in the second round and worry that they’ll miss out on a chance to add a big time weapon for Aaron Rodgers.

So here’s my shot at the first round, along with the Packers’ complete seven round mock. As usual, feel free to mock away.

1. Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU  Even the Bengals can’t screw this one up.

2. Washington: Chase Young, DE, Ohio St.  Please don’t be stupid here. We don’t need Young in the NFC North

3. Chargers (trade with Lions): Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

4. Giants: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson  OL can wait. Giants get a disrupter for their defense.

5. Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa QB, Alabama  After passing on Brees because of health concerns, Fins roll the dice here.

6. Lions (from Chargers): Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State  Lions get the guy they would’ve drafted at 3 and add a third and more in the deal.

7. Carolina: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

8. Cardinals: Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama  Here comes the run on tackles.

9. Jaguars: Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

10. Browns: Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

11. Jets: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

12. Raiders: CJ Henderson, CB, Florida  Gruden and Mayock know they can get a stud WR a few picks down the road. Henderson is tops on their board here.

13. 49ers: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

14. Bucaneers: Javon Kinlaw, DT, S. Carolina

15. Broncos: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

16. Falcons: K’Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU

17. Cowboys: Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama

18. Dolphins: Yetur Gross-Matos, Edge, Penn St.

19. Raiders: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama  This is the guy I hope the Packers look to trade up for if he’s still on the board. Pack could deal with Fins to jump ahead of Raiders. Would cost 30 and 62, plus a mid-round swap.

20. Jaguars: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU  They snipe the Eagles, which every mock in the US has them taking.

21. Eagles: Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma  Not a bad consolation prize for losing out on JJ.

22. Vikings: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU  They need to start to rebuild their CB group.

23. Patriots: Jordan Love, QB, Utah St.

24. Saints: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

25. Vikings: Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise St.

26. Dolphins: DeAndre Swift, RB, Georgia

27. Seahawks: AJ Epenesa, DE, Iowa

28. Ravens: Zack Baun, LB, Wisconsin

29. Titans: Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU

30. Packers: See Below

31. 49ers: Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama

32. Chiefs: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin

Round 1 (30): Packers  If the board falls something like this, I think they debate between adding a tackle, like Josh Jones from Houston or a wide receiver. Jones could give the Pack the luxury of letting him learn behind Ricky Wagner, or serving as health insurance in case Wagner misses time. If they pass on tackle here, I think they’ll grab one in their next three picks.

As I mentioned in the middle of my mock, if Henry Ruggs III gets past the middle of the first, I hope the Pack gives Miami a call to see if they can move up to grab him. He would cost a few picks, but to me he’s the one guy who could make the offense lethal in 2020.

Barring the unlikely trade-up, in this scenario the Packers could choose between Denzel Mims, Brandon Aiyuk and Jalen Reagor–and if they like all three, maybe they’d entertain moving out of the first and into the early second to get one there. Mims has the size they like, but I think they need the versatility that the other two offer. I’ve had a crush on Aiyuk this whole draft season, but I get the feeling they go with Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU.

Reagor gives the WR group the electric, dynamic speed guy they lack. Had some issues with drops, but has shown the ability to make tough catches in traffic and elusive moves make him a dangerous YAC guy–kind of this year’s version of the Niners’ Deebo Samuel. Reagor would probably wrest the punt returner job from Tyler Ervin–he’s lethal as a return guy.

Round Two (62): Lucas Niang, OT, TCU Well, look at that, the Pack goes back to back on TCU guys. Niang was a leader in the locker room, who came back for his senior season and had it cut short by a torn labrum. His athleticism is a fit for the Pack’s zone blocking scheme and he can sit and learn behind Wagner for a year.

Round 3 (94): Logan Wilson, LB, Wyoming If I were drafting for the Pack and either Kenneth Murray or Patrick Queen were on the board at 30, I would grab him. I don’t think Gutey would though. They just don’t value the inside linebacker that highly. They find value here with a guy who posted three straight 100 tackle seasons and has the speed to cover sideline to sideline. Pack needs to address this spot given Kirksey’s injury history and the inexperience behind him.

Round 4 (136): Leki Fotu, DT, Utah It wouldn’t surprise me if the Pack addresses this spot much earlier in the draft. Publicly, Gutey has expressed confidence in the DL not named Kenny Clark, but it appears he vastly overpaid Dean Lowry and Tyler Lancaster wasn’t great. Montravius Adams gets one last chance and Kingsley Keke could become a major contributor, but the run defense needs help and Fotu would fit right in next to Clark. His strength and long arms will make him valuable on early downs. His lack of pass rush ability in college might make him an early down contributor only for now.

Round 5 (175): Nevelle Clark, CB, Central Florida He’s got the size the Packers like at the position and has the makings of a slot corner, with his long arms and physicality. His speed his suspect though so he doesn’t provide much of an option on the outside.

Round 6 (192): Dalton Keene, TE, Virginia Tech He might get a chance to replace Danny Vitale as FB and special teams ace and add some depth at tight end, where Sternberger is being counted on to take a big year two leap. Keene may never be an in-line blocker but he’s effective in space and has been productive as a receiver and ball carrier since his freshman season.

Round 6 (208): Tanner Muse, S, Clemson Projects as an inside linebacker/safety hybrid and could replace Campbell on the roster and play behind Raven Greene. He was asked to cover the tight end in college and served on all four special teams units. The ILB group needs more competition and Muse will provide it.

Round 6 (209): Calvin Throckmorton, OL, Oregon The senior has played virtually every position on the line for the Ducks. He’s smart (3.8 GPA): his teammates call him Doc Throck. Probably projects as a center since his sub-par athletic ability makes him an iffy pass protector. A year on the practice squad is in the cards and then maybe he slides on to the depth chart in ’21, especially if Linsley leaves and Patrick replaces him.

Round 7 (236): Carter Coughlin, EDGE, Minnesota His name kept sitting there in all the simulations I did and I can see him getting a shot to fill Kyler Fackrell’s roster spot. All of us here in the Twin Cities know him well and saw how productive he was in the Big Ten. His lack of strength makes his upside probably no more than a situational pass rusher, but he could provide special teams value as well.

Round 7 (242): Omar Bayless, WR, Arkansas State FBS star who caught 93 passes for more than 1,600 yards last season. Lots of ability, but probably needs a year to refine his skills on the practice squad. Worth a flyer this late in the draft.

Obviously, the Pack will move up and down the board and make multiple trades, so this was mostly an exercise for fun and looking at positions I expect the Pack to focus on. I did several simulations that had Jordan Love available at 30 and they might be tempted to grab Jalen Hurts in the second. I think they probably will grab a QB at some point, but there just wasn’t the right fit when I put this together.

I’ll have plenty of draft coverage on KFAN this weekend:  Saturday morning on “In the Zone” from 8-10. Then a two hour NFL Draft special from 11-1, featuring The Draft Network’s Jordan Reid from 11:15-12. Hope you’ll catch some of it either on the Fan or iHeart Radio.

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6 Responses to Is This The Year Pack Draft a Receiver On Day One?

  1. larry says:

    wow!!!, Davey is early this year, good job THC,. I had mine done last week and figure OSSG will have his soon. All you other guys on here, put your thoughts down please. It is fun, what the hell. all you can be is wrong. lol. I liked Mim’s from the start. But now I read he may be gone too now. who knows? I like Ceedee Lamb and Jefferson from LSU better then Ruggs, we will see. I just hope Gutey does not trade back but me may again. can get another 3 rd round pick so could do it. But, since I wont figure trades, here is what I think they will do.
    1st round. They will take a DT after the film they saw last year vs. the Niners. I think they will
    take Blaylock DT from TCU. Good 1st step and good against the run. Clark needs some help.
    2. here is where they would want WR.. Van Jefferson FLA. great route runner, not fast, 4.6 but catches everything
    3. OT, Kindley Georgia
    4. Lawrence. DE. from LSU. or could take Moss Te LSU, Randy’s boy . Vikes would love that.
    5. Cam Brown, LB Penn state
    6.Cephus, WR badgers, God I hope they get him.
    6. Gibson, (here is our Cobb), Wr, RB, Memphis and returns punts and kickoffs.
    7. James Morgan, QB from FIU from Green Bay , perfect project for 3 years for 12
    7. Pollard Ol Clemson, or I do like THC pick Coughlin here from Minny..

    What Iwish they would do, Take Murray LB from OKL> , but he will be gone. Then take Baun OLB from Badgers if he is there, But he will be gone . So then you have to take Ol. Not a tackle
    I would take Biadez. center from Badgers. Put him at right guard for now .Move Turner out to Tackle as Back up or whoever is better between him and Wagner. and you have your center for next 4 years. Linsey is up for contract I think next year.
    2. take Pittman WR USC, or Hurts for backup QB. Mark my words, he will be a lot like like Watson when all is done. Just need players around 12 right now to win now. Sucks, I really like him.
    3. take Malik Harrison OLB from O.S. If Hurts is still there, YOU have to take him.
    4. Lawrence DE LSU, I do like him .hope we get him Great Name too.
    5.Harrison Bryant. TE FAU, he looks great on tape and can run. we need that badly over the middle .
    6. Malcom Roach, DT from Texas, need a run stopper.
    6.Lavert Hill CB from Michigan , good returner also.
    7.Morgan , QB, great story if happens
    7. Pollard Ol we need depth.
    we will see what happens, in this crazy world were in right now, it will be nice to have something to talk and bitch about. when it is done. lol. be smart, stay safe, Go Packers.

  2. Wow...a live sporting event...albeit...in closed quarters and not rescheduled. I am not one that can watch replays of anything in sports....like the 1987 Super Bowl....a Twins game from 1992...watching replays of JR Reid with the TWolves...Wild,Philly 19 says:

    Wow…a live sporting event…albeit…in closed quarters and not rescheduled. I am not one that can watch replays of anything in sports….like the 1987 Super Bowl….a Twins game from 1992…watching replays of JR Reid with the TWolves…Wild,Philly 1990 Hockey games…uugh…give me live sports. So…after studying the draft from my confined home office for weeks here we go with OSSG PACKER MOCK DRAFT. In the real world I have a feeling Gutey is going to trade slightly down in round one. But in my draft we are going with the assumptions to draft all 10 choices for the Pack. We always hear drafts are based on 1- best player available and 2- need. Best player available is hard to determine in a fantasy draft so most of my choices will be for need. I rank the Packer need in this order: WR,ILB,OT,IDL,CB, QB. So…here we go:
    Round 1- If lb Murray or Quenn, OT Jones, or LSU receiver Jefferson are available you take any one of those. However they wont be so my choice is Denzel Mims WR from Baylor. Gutey likes tall rangy receivers. He is 6-3 and what I like about him is he can make the contested catch. With 4.38 speed we will get a day 1 starter. Said to be an absolute great team guy.
    Round 2- Akeen-Davis Gaither…LB Appalachian State,6-1 224. Yes…from a smaller program but this guy had measurables in speed and movements equal to or better than Murray and Queen. Would be the fastest LB for the Pack in decades. A tackling machine and pass coverer from sideline to sideline. Would be a vast improvement over Martinez who led the league in tackles 6-8 yards past the line of scrimmage. A day one starter.
    Round 3- Cole Kmet- TE Notre Dame 6-6 262.. Boy would I be happy if he’s available at 3. I know TE don’t usually start in year 1 but this guy would challenge. Think a guy like Kyle Rudolph from his Alma Mater. Good blocker and a great red zone target.
    Round 4- Matt Peart..UConn.6-7 318. Massive tackle and heir apparent to right tackle. May need development but a great prospect.
    Round 5- Dane Jackson- CB-Pittsburgh Rangy defensive back who is a press corner. With Kevin King status doubtfull next year a good project to develop.
    Round 6- We have 3 choices here…so here we go in order of selection…Khalil Davis, DT..Nebraska…6-1, 308..possible run stuffer next to Clark….had 8 sacks also. Carter Coughlin.. see Davy’s comments…Eno Benjamin RB, Arizona State..5-10 205 rushed for over 1000 yards last year with 10 rushing TD’s and 2 rec TD’s. Very productive playmaker.
    Round 7- We have 2 choices here. First..Nate Stanley QB Iowa. Tall ,rangy would need work but if he falls this far worth a flyer as a project. Wisconsin native had a solid career at Iowa Last choice…Ray Lima…nose tackle from Iowa State 6-3 305. Was captain of team said to be a great leader. Was a run stopper…good 2 down project based on college stats.
    There you have it..OSSG Mock. In real life this is an important draft for Gutey…he didn’t make the big splashesin free agency like last year with the Smiths. Lets get Rodgers some immediate targets and shore up the defense. GO PACK GO !!

  3. Lynndickeyfan says:

    I don’t follow the prospects at all. There are just too many. With what I hear I think it likely they trade out of the first and try to load up on middle talent lower down. Maybe that’s just the years of Ted talking. They tripled down on needs the last two years, will they do it again? I don’t think so. We shall see.

  4. larry says:

    Where is everyone? We cant go anywhere. Good time to write your predictions, come on Voice, Packerlifer, Dave, Carl, Harry, let’s see them,. I Listened to THC with Paul Allen yesterday. You read my picks on Blacklock and Hurts just the way I wrote them Davey, but I didn’t hear you mention my name with it . just wondering. Always good to get some love on the big KFAN. Go Packers.

  5. LanesRover says:

    Hi Larry and the gang,hope everyone is well, I just want three fast hard hitting ball hawk linebackers and help for Rodgers and Clark, I think Sternberger has a big year,Larry get a softball reunion going,as always,Go Pack!! Be safe everyone!!

  6. Greg says:

    Just stopped in to post this: LOLOLOLOLOLOL

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