Packers XLV

Seattle Won't Be Partying Like It's 1999.

Posted January 10th, 2020 @ 12:01am

It's kind if crazy when you think about it, but when the Packers take the field Sunday night against the Seahawks, they will be one of just five teams left fighting for the Vince Lombardi trophy. Whether they punch the final ticket and join the other three conference finalists will depend on a whole bunch of factors. So let's dive into it.

The Vikings' surprising win over the Saints removed the most daunting potential opponent this weekend. And I actually feared a rematch with the Eagles more than a date with the Seahawks, with their prolific tight ends, pass receiving backs and elite defensive front. The Seahawks present their own problems for the Pack to solve, but I think it's the most favorable matchup they could have drawn in this round.

To start with, there's the history. As great as Russell Wilson is, he's struggled mightily at Lambeau, winless in three tries, with six interceptions to go along with three touchdown passes. The Seahawks haven't won at Lambeau since 1999, when their coach was some dude named Mike Holmgren, and Pete Carroll was about to get fired by the Patriots. Word is, they found a suitable replacement.

Wilson comes in leading a team that in many ways has mirrored the Packers this year. They win close games, they win ugly and they are maddeningly inconsistent. The real difference has been that Seattle is 8-1 on the road this year and just 4-4 at home, while the Pack have tasted defeat just once at Lambeau this season.

Wilson remains an MVP-type talent, even though his offense is shaky. They've lost their top three running backs and are relying on the resurrection of Beast Mode and rookie Travis Homer to carry the load. It's hard to see the Seahawks accomplishing much on the ground. Wilson remains the singular threat and the Pack will need to keep a spy on him to prevent him from gaining chunks of yards with his legs. He's been great on third down of late, converting 16 times in his last two games. How the Packers handle those third downs will go a long way in determining the winner.

The Packers match up well with the two recieving threats on the outside. I expect Jaire Alexander to cover the speedy Tyler Lockett, with Kevin King tasked with dealing with emerging rookie star DK Metcalf, who at 6'4" 230 is becoming a matchup nightmare. He broke out against the Eagles, but their secondary is trash. King should be able to be physical with him at the line. The danger is the weird angles King sometimes takes--he can get torched. The Seahawks have been a big play offense and the Packers' D has given up more than their share of explosive plays. But with a limited amount of playmakers, you'd think Pettine will keep a safety around Metcalf to provide assistance when needed. They'll bust a couple of big plays. Can the Pack stiffen in the red zone, as they have all season? I think they can and will.

The other factor worth watching on this side of the ball is the advantage the Pack has up front. The Seahawks' offensive line is average at best, and they're dealing with injuries all across the line. Left tackle Duane Brown has not practiced (through Thursday) and neither has his backup, George Fant. Left guard Mike Iupati also missed the game last week and has yet to practice this week. Center Joey Hunt has also missed practice all week and even if he plays, he'll be no match for Kenny Clark (provided he plays--more on that in a bit). It should add up to a big advantage to the #4 pressure defense in the league. The Smiths figure to be a problem for Wilson all night. If the Pack can keep him under 40 yards rushing, they should be in good shape.

On the other side of the ball, this needs to be a night where Aaron Jones gets at least 20 touches and Jamaal Williams gets at least 10-15. The Legion of Boom is a thing of the past, but they still have All Pro Bobby Wagner manning the middle of the field and KJ Wright gobbling up tackles. But the Pack's offensive line has the edge over the 'Hawks' front and there should be lanes for Jones and Williams to find.

A productive running game will open everything up for Rodgers, who faces a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in pass rush. Yes, they notched seven sacks against the Eagles, but they were without the right side of their offensive line and were facing a 40 year old backup quarterback. Rodgers will have time: the question is whether he will find open receivers. Davante Adams and Allen Lazard figure to be his favorite targets, and the Pack sure could use a big night from former Seahawk Jimmy Graham--Seattle has been one of the worst defenses against tight ends this season. Maybe Bob Tonyan has a big night--like he did last year in Seattle.

If you're looking for wild card players who could stand out: I've got Tyler Ervin, either on a return or on a gadget play out of the backfield. Kyler Fackrell could also be a key cog on the defense helping to chase down Wilson. We may also see the return of safety Raven Greene, who's been out since week 2, but has been practicing all week and may be activated for the game. He and/or Ibrahim Campbell should get plenty of snaps as the Pack figures to be in the nickel a lot, without a strong running attack to worry about.

The biggest edge Seattle has is coaching, where Carroll is old enough to be Matt LaFleur's dad. He's an old hand at this, while LaFleur makes his maiden voyage coaching a playoff team. Half of the Packers roster is in the same boat, but with Rodgers, a pair of solid veteran tackles and a defense that is rested and healthy, the team appears ready and able to handle this familiar playoff opponent. The only big concern is the health of Kenny Clark, whose back kept him out of practice on Wednesday and 'very limited' on Thursday. The defense looks entirely different when he's not on the field.

I like the matchup. I like the fact that the Packers are being called by many a fraudulent 13-3 team. I think they feed off of that. This won't be a night where the Seahawks party like it's 1999. It's 2020 and the Packers can see their future clearly and won't let this opportunity slip through their hands. I say they leave the field one win away from the Super Bowl.

Packers 24  Seahawks 17

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Comments (32):

Just here to strike a chord and Purple troll took the bait. I think the Pack have this one, Wilson hasn't been the knight in shining armor this year and they are heavily injured. Weather seems to indicate a ground game and Jones will feast. Packers 24-14

on January 10th, 2020 at 01:01pm

I'm a Cowboy ..... on a Steeeehl Horse I Ride ! ........ I'm wanted ..... Dead or Aliiivvve .......MM Out ...

on January 10th, 2020 at 06:54am

I heard the Seahawks hired Brandon Bostik to lead as a team captain for the coin toss.

on January 10th, 2020 at 10:47am

Sounds like we're in agreement. Run the ball. Control Wilson. 27 / 17 Packers.

on January 10th, 2020 at 10:52am

Worry about your own game if your lousy team is in one packers troll otherwise shut the hell up jealous envious Idiot!!!

on January 10th, 2020 at 11:07am

Bears and Lions aren’t playing this weekend as per the norm, I made a good living off of those awful franchises and their fans are home knitting and baking and watching yuppie DIY shows!!

on January 10th, 2020 at 11:19am

Offensive line needs a big game and a couple turnovers from the defense like Larry says,Go Pack Go!!

on January 10th, 2020 at 11:41am

Rudolph, why of course he pushed off. If you would open your eyes, the saints defender is holding his arms down all the way to the back of the end zone. Had Rudolph not pushed, maybe he could have caught the ball with his facemark. LULZ ........the only place that would be pass interference would be lambeau. Go to the 35 second mark and watch the saints defender. Of course Rudolph pushed. You actually need to be able to use your hands to catch a football. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7tKQsqmx0M

on January 11th, 2020 at 01:20pm

You don’t have to tell me you need hands to catch a football Greg, I used to coach that choking team,first of all holding the hands down did not cause separation and the ball wasn’t in the air yet and then he must have got his hand loose to push the 5foot6 defensive back,you’re a homer Greg,at least call it like it is Greg,did you ever play,be a man not a whining pussy!!

on January 11th, 2020 at 02:00pm

Greg if we lose to the 49ers and look terrible will you admit our faults and don’t be a whining pussy like Bud says?

on January 11th, 2020 at 02:05pm

Everyone in the whole world said it was a push off except Greg, I guess he’s smarter than everybody,boo who who Vikings never get a call!!

on January 11th, 2020 at 02:16pm

10 years ago on a Saturday a 6 seed went to Atlanta the 1 seed and destroyed them on their way to super bowl championship,it was the packers Greg!! Vikings are terrible,Cousins is a joke and defense is a joke, Blow it up,who would hire Stefanski,Good Greif!!!

on January 11th, 2020 at 06:04pm

10 years ago the packers won the super bowl by sneaking into the playoffs. Of course, they don't make the playoffs if Shiancoe's catch for a td was actually ruled a td. That was another Lambeau ref job. Thanks for reminding me.

on January 11th, 2020 at 06:21pm

But they did make it in and won the whole thing Greg,how many times have you made it in and won,Waa Waa 😩

on January 11th, 2020 at 06:49pm

Greg it looked like 11 against 0 in Vikings game,what a coward!!

on January 11th, 2020 at 06:56pm

How’d we look today Greg,Cmon you’re a big boy, you can admit it,packers have a rookie head coach,Vikings don’t,might be time for a change,packers have an excuse,we don’t!!

on January 11th, 2020 at 07:19pm

How'd we look Wendy? 37-8 like is how we looked. If you need help on that, just ask!

on January 11th, 2020 at 07:44pm

oooooooooooooooow Greg is pouting,I’m sorry,thought you were used to it.

on January 11th, 2020 at 08:26pm

This will be a tight game with Seattle having a chance to win. It's in Lambeau though, which means to 3 to 4 phantom calls for Green Bay. I would pick Seattle, if it were 11 on 11, but this is 11 on 18. It's kind of too bad for Seattle, but it is what it is.

on January 11th, 2020 at 10:34am

Ahh the idiot Greg is back,nice try,Vikings got swept by packers,live with it,why are you always whining about officiating,Cousins was terrible,no mention of that though or offensive line getting ass kicked,we got away with a huge OPI against saints,we’ll need some calls today idiot!! Like I’ve said,really stupid fan base and Greg is proof!!Time to grow up Greg!! What’s it going to be next year?

on January 11th, 2020 at 12:30pm

I'm having some confusion here. Is it the helmet that in green bay that determines where the ball goes? He was short by a half yard for that first down, and the 3rd down touchdown was the same thing. I always thought it was the ball, in Lambeau is it the helmet?

on January 12th, 2020 at 08:54pm

The silence you hear is U.S. Bank Stadium. Even with Greg"s usual one note bawling.

on January 12th, 2020 at 09:02pm

Packerlifer, It was a good ride as you are going to San Francisco. It took many gifts this year to get the one home game. You know it and so do I. Back to my question though.......is it the helmet or the ball in Lambeau for ball placement?

on January 12th, 2020 at 09:08pm

Waa Waa Greg,New York looks at it,I guess you’re wrong,Call them idiot!!

on January 12th, 2020 at 09:15pm

Elroy, New York is a schithole. What do they see on the cameras that all of America doesn't? Let me guess, you saw a td and first down. LULZ

on January 12th, 2020 at 09:21pm

I can say it Greg,good job packers,we didn’t earn it they did,put you’re nuk in and go to bed!!

on January 12th, 2020 at 09:21pm

Oh like the push off in New Orleans that the whole world saw,different for Vikings I suppose,truly a moron!!

on January 12th, 2020 at 09:26pm

Stick with Cousins,Dimmer,spielwoman and pussy stadium Greg,we suck,packers are just better idiot!!

on January 12th, 2020 at 09:31pm

Just curious, what play would we have run from the goal line on what should have been 4th and a 1/2 yard? Would it have been the same play on what should have been 4th and a 1/2 at the end of the game? What was the play that going to be called? Someone should ask Aaron, and see if he has the brains to understand the question. I'd be curious to know the plays.

on January 12th, 2020 at 09:55pm

The Packers are in the playoffs for the 20th time in 26 seasons. This is their 15th Divisional round during that time. They are currently .500 in these games but 4-1 in those played at Lambeau. Both these teams do whatever it takes to win and they have the two best quarterbacks in the NFC when it comes to doing just that. It's fitting that this will be the final playoff of the weekend because it will be the best. If it goes right I think it will be a game similar to the early 2015 meeting between these two at Lambeau. This was their first game since the 2014 NFC Championship and the Pack was out to pay it back and did 27-17. The Packers started strong and jumped out to the lead, briefly lost it in the 3rd qtr. then took over and won it in the 4th. We may have an injury issue with Kenny Clark which could hurt but Seattle's injuries more than balance that out. Their best chance to win will be to take Aaron Rodgers out of the game like they did to Carson Wentz last week so the Packers will have to be on guard for any "psycho" play, especially from Bozo the Clowney. Even without their starting qb for most of the game and a raft of other injuries the Seahawks barely beat the Eagles last weekend in a one score game. The Packers are better and in better shape. They win like in 2015 27-17.

on January 12th, 2020 at 10:11am

What the hell are you talking about Greg,are you drunk,go back to getting busy with your cousin on the couch.

on January 12th, 2020 at 10:24pm

Hey Greg ask the brilliant Stefanski that question!! I can’t get ahold of Aaron.

on January 12th, 2020 at 10:42pm

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