Packers XLV

NFC Hierarchy Clears as Playoffs Nears

Posted November 29th, 2011 @ 03:11pm

As we get set to turn the calendar to December we enter crunch time in the NFL--where playoff positioning is solidified and teams try to catch a wave like the Packers did last season. But as of now, the NFC playoffs appear set. The six teams that would comprise the NFC field right now, appear to be the ones that will be left standing in January.

Yes, I know, a lot can happen between now and New Year's Day. A key QB could go down, someone could stomp their way to a suspension. But barring any major developments, here's how things appear to be shaking out in the NFC.

#1 Seed: The Pack, of course. They haven't lost in more than 340 days. They're chasing history right now and have a very good shot at an undefeated regular season. This Sunday's road test at the Giants appears to be their toughest game left, though home games against the Raiders and Bears won't be gimmes. Whether they're 16-0 or slip up somewhere along the way, there will be no road warrior script like 2010 for the Packers. The road to the Super Bowl runs through Lambeau.

#2 Seed: San Francisco appears to have the inside track, but don't sleep on the Saints. The Niners have a better conference record than New Orleans, 7-1 vs. 5-3, so they would likely win a tiebreaker if they finish with similar records. With road games in Seattle and St. Louis and home games against the Rams, Panthers and Steelers, I see the 49ers finishing 13-3 at worst and the second seed.

#3 Seed: The Saints remain the Packers' most dangerous threat in the NFC. As I predicted in August, the first game and last game may be Saints at Packers. They have the QB who can go toe to toe with Aaron Rodgers and he has a deeper arsenal of offensive weapons than the Pack has--thanks to a strong backfield. The Saints may win out. Their toughest test is a road game in Nashville. Otherwise they come to Minnesota and host the Lions, Falcons and Panthers. Say they stumble once. They finish 12-4 and the third seed.

#4 Seed: Though the Cowboys only have a one game lead over the Giants, it feels like a lot more. They've won four straight, though they haven't been overly impressive along the way. The schedule favors Dallas in December, with divisional home games against the Giants and Eagles and road games in Arizona, Tampa and New York. They're 7-4 right now; I've got them finishing 10-6 and winning the NFC Least.

Wildcard #1: Atlanta has righted the ship and will secure the top wildcard spot with 10 or 11 wins. They're at Houston this week--the Texans are down to their third string QB--a rookie--and they're on the road in Carolina and New Orleans. They have home games with Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. Feels like 10-6.

Wildcard #2: Despite the loss of Jay Cutler, the Bears will sneak into the playoffs by default. They'll win their two home games, against KC and Seattle and will likely win in Minnesota in the season finale. The road game in Denver is a question mark because it's hard to pick against Tim Tebow right now--feels like you're picking against God. They'll lose in Lambeau on Christmas night, so put them at 10 or 11 wins.

The Pretenders: The only two teams with winning records right now are the Lions and the Giants. With news that Ndamukong Suh has been suspended two games for stomping on Evan Dietrich-Smith, the Lions have no shot in New Orleans on Sunday night. They'll win home games with the Vikings and Chargers, but will lose at Oakland and Green Bay, to finish at 9-7. They may be ascending, but they need to learn how to act like winners. As for the Giants, if you've watched them this season, you know they are confounding. Lose at home to Seattle then beat the Patriots in Foxborough. Their last two efforts: losses at home to the Eagles and at New Orleans show that their offensive line is terrible and their secondary took too many injury hits early on to compete. 8-8 appears to be their fate.

Wildcard weekend could bring us Chicago at Dallas and a divisional matchup between the Falcons and the Saints. If the home teams survive, we'd be looking at Dallas at Lambeau and the Saints at San Francisco in the divisional round. Wait, am I getting ahead of myself? OK, one game at a time...bring on the Giants.

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on August 1st, 2012 at 08:22pm

Fuck Da Bears! The LUCKIEST team in the league. Who else got an oipenng day win thanks to idiot refs? Who edged the Pack at home on the day the Pack decided to play the worst game of the year with the idiot penalties and got raped by the refs? That got to play the Fish with BOTH the first and second string QB's out? That time and time again gets flucky scores off of tipped, dropped balls and special teams horseshit? That got to play the Vikes last night outside, without their star runner, receiver O lineman and QB facing that broken old wreck #4? Fuck Da Bears.

on August 3rd, 2012 at 06:05am

The Cowboys are not America's team, at least not the America I live in!

on December 18th, 2011 at 11:20am

Davey, I'm a die hard listener to you Sunday mornings on Packer Preview (and as much as I can on Saturday mornings) and hope you plan on talking about our linebacker injury's/problems and how it'll pan out. Will they play? Will we see So'oto? Glad you and all Packers/fans (OK, maybe not Walden) had a great Thanksgiving.

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on May 7th, 2012 at 07:55pm

Sounds good to me. I was almost hoping Suh would string out his appeal so that he might miss the game in Green Bay. I don't like the feel of a revenge game. I would have like to seen the Giants game last night to get a better feel for them, but if the Saints can do it we can to0. Let's just roll and hope the back ups keep playing like starters!

on November 29th, 2011 at 12:22pm

Then bring on the Raiders, the Chiefs, da Bears (again) & the Lions (again). If they manage to continue to go 1-0 each game they will finish 16-0! Interesting post Dave, we'll see how things shake out for the playoffs. Go Pack all the way to 19-0!

on November 29th, 2011 at 12:26pm

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