Packers XLV

Weighing In On Manning's New Home

Posted March 7th, 2012 @ 12:03am

Along with the Saints' bounty story (I refuse to call it Bounty Gate), the story that will carry us until the free agency season is Where Will Peyton Go? You'll read a lot about the places that make the most sense. Here's my list of the five places that would serve up the best story lines.

#5: Miami-This is the team that might offer Manning the most money because they are most in need of superstar power. The Dolphins' offense has Brandon Marshall and Reggie Bush and would probably get Reggie Wayne as a side dish. It would cause Joe Philbin to play a different offense than he thought he'd be installing, but I doubt he'd have a problem with that. The Dolphins also play in the same division as Tom Brady, which means we would get two battles each year.

4: Kansas City-One of the NFL's greatest fan bases would welcome Manning with open arms. The offense is pretty potent already provided they re-sign Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles and Tommy Moeaki return from injuries. It's a very winnable division and with Romeo Crennel showing his impact on a young, improving defense, Manning and the Chiefs would be the preseason AFC West favorites.

3: Houston-I get the feeling Manning would like to avoid playing in the AFC South, unless he's really bitter at how owner Jim Irsay has handed this divorce. Imagine the Texans with Manning: instant Super Bowl favorites. You'd have to feel bad for Matt Schaub, but you plug Manning and Wayne into an offense with Andre Johnson and Arian Foster: oh. my. goodness.

2: N.Y. Jets: Manning and Rex Ryan seem like an unlikely pair, but how entertaining could this be? Sanchez moves to the bench and the Jets bring in Tom Brady's rival to lead them against their most bitter rivals. This is a huge longshot, obviously, but imagine the ratings the Jets would garner for their games against the Pats.

1. San Francisco: Look, Alex Smith resurrected his career under Jim Harbaugh, and I've heard nothing that would lead me to think the 49ers would make a move like this, but San Francisco gives Peyton Manning the best chance to reach the Super Bowl next season and they'd potentially pass the Pack as NFC Super Bowl favorites. This is the last place I want to see him land, but it might be the one that makes the most sense--unless he'd prefer to stay in the AFC and not have to face his brother, unless they both reach the Super Bowl.

Gut feeling: I think he ends up in Kansas City, a la Joe Montana.

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on March 28th, 2012 at 01:26pm

Since all of this is pure speculation, my take on this, FWIW, is a near complete reversal of Dave's list. I'd put KC first, then Miami, Houston, J-E-T-S, and SF fifth. Manning's odds of getting to the playoffs are better in the AFC because there's no clear cut favorite. The road is a lot tougher in the NFC, with the likes of the 49ers (with or without Manning), the Giants, the Falcons (if they ever get it figured out), the Lions, and of course, the Packers. Even the NFC's second tier is pretty strong, with the Bears, Cowboys and Eagles. So for me, the NFC is highly unlikely, and where he ends up in the AFC doesn't really matter. There's my $0.02.

on March 6th, 2012 at 08:30pm

good calls fellas, but, i told p.a. and florio 2 months ago, he is going to arizona, next would be the jets. who knows, i'm waiting for the comparisons to favre to start, go pack

on March 7th, 2012 at 01:31pm

Arizona makes the most sense, but to me isn't one of the five most interesting landing spots...it's a dome, there's a pro bowl receiver there, winnable division. But I don't think Peyton would get along with the equipment guys there ;)

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on March 9th, 2012 at 07:38am

It might be interesting to look at power rkniang volatility week by week. That is: take the difference between Week 5 and Week 4 rkniangs and sum them. Each week, the larger the differences, the larger the volatility. If changes in rkniang are not as great, the rkniangs (and predictions) are more stable. If the beatpaths method is overall correct (save for fluke games), then stability of the rkniangs should increase over time. Here are the last three weeks (change in each team's rank is summed):Week 50+1+1+3+6+3+5+8+1+3+6+4+2+10+6+10+2+7+1+2+3+4+0+4+3+1+13+1+12+1+1+0 = 124Week 40+1+1+2+5+11+8+0+7+1+12+17+1+4+10+9+4+5+5+1+3+8+12+1+5+5+0+0+7+4+1+2 = 152Week 32+0+14+2+2+12+19+7+5+0+10+11+8+6+4+11+6+2+5+0+7+0+0+5+6+17+15+0+16+2+6+2 = 202This limited sample seems to confirm that the rkniang's stability is increasing over time and that the volatility of the rkniangs is decreasing as the beatpaths method moves teams closer to their actual position in the pecking order.It will be interesting to see if this trend continues when the power rkniangs for Week 6 are posted.

on May 18th, 2012 at 04:32pm

Justin: Squaring the differences is how you form the sittisatcal values of Variance and Standard Deviation, although that's in a slightly different case than shown above.I think we've known for a while that as the season progresses, the graph stabilizes. I think the only significant value of this exercise would be to see where the volatility is consistent from week to week as a point to say this is the point in the season where BeatPaths should be making sense . The other thing that might be interesting is comparing the stable volatility number for the 3 different graphing methods to see which is more consistent.

on May 20th, 2012 at 04:37am

Awful day picking yatesrdey due to a lot of high teams losing and low teams winning.The Standard rankings match your picks perfectly and are 6-7 this week.The Iterative method picked CAR over TB and is a ghastly 5-8.Yet again, the Weighted method makes a case for itself, picking SD over NE and going 7-6.All three have NYG at the top of their rankings and will be picking NYG tonight over CLE who ranks 29, 28, and 22 in the respective methods.

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